College football recruiting has always been a high-stakes, fiercely competitive process. But in recent years, the phenomenon of decommitments—where a recruit pledges to one school only to flip to another—has become more prominent than ever. The recent flip of Will Howard, a 5-star quarterback, from Ohio State to Florida State underscores how this trend is reshaping the landscape.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
Decommitments have surged over the past decade. In 2014, the number of decommitments among ESPN’s Top 300 recruits was around 8%. In 2024, that number skyrocketed to nearly 20%. These switches can happen months before signing day, or sometimes just days before a player is set to officially join a program.
What’s Driving the Trend?
A few major factors have fueled this surge:
Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) Deals: Players now have unprecedented opportunities to capitalize on their personal brands. Programs with stronger NIL collectives can offer lucrative deals, tipping the scales in their favor.
Coaching Changes and Stability: Players often commit to coaches just as much as programs. If a coach leaves, or if a player senses instability, they may reconsider their choice.
More Transparent Recruiting Processes: Social media and advanced analytics have given players more information than ever about programs, their depth charts, and how they’ll fit in.
Family and Personal Factors: Sometimes, recruits flip because of family proximity, academic interests, or even how well they mesh with future teammates.
Impact on College Football Programs
For programs, the increase in decommitments means they must be agile and proactive:
Relentless Recruiting: The recruiting process no longer stops after a commitment is secured. Coaches must continually re-recruit their own players to keep them in the fold.
Building Relationships: Programs with authentic, personal relationships—rather than just flash and prestige—are better positioned to weather these flips.
Depth Chart Management: Coaches must plan for sudden changes and maintain roster flexibility, especially in key positions like quarterback.
A Fan’s Perspective
For fans, these decommitments are a double-edged sword. On one hand, it can be frustrating to see a top prospect flip at the last moment. On the other, it can bring fresh excitement and hope when a coveted recruit unexpectedly joins the program.
What’s Next?
Decommitments are unlikely to slow down as long as there’s a dynamic mix of NIL money, coaching carousel chaos, and the intense competition for elite talent. Programs that adapt—by fostering genuine relationships and embracing the realities of modern recruiting—will thrive.
Will Howard’s decision to flip to Florida State over other contenders like Alabama and South Carolina is just one high-profile example. As this trend continues, it will keep fans on the edge of their seats and make the recruiting trail more fascinating than ever before.
